Maple Leafs' stock slowly rising
Hockey Betting Lines
09/03/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There is guarded optimism surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs heading into the 2010-11 NHL season, much of that due to the astute moves made this offseason by general manager Brian Burke.
Through trades and free agency, Burke has assembled an interesting mix of forwards that should compete at a higher level than last season, one that saw the Leafs finish 25th in goals scored per game with only 2.56.
One of the more celebrated moves was the acquisition of hard-nosed forward Kris Versteeg. The 24-year-old, who was acquired via trade from the Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, brings an impressive resume that includes 42 goals and 97 points spread out over the past two seasons in Chicago. He will get every opportunity to build on those solid numbers with the Leafs, as the organization has him penciled in among the top six forwards heading into training camp.
Where Versteeg will help light the lamp, fellow newcomer Colby Armstrong will be asked to bring a physical brand of hockey that has been lacking in Toronto. The gritty 27-year-old forward signed a three-year, $3 million contract with the Leafs after putting up decent numbers last year with the Atlanta Thrashers, scoring 15 goals and 29 points in 79 games.
His toughness will most likely be utilized on the third line, but through the course of a season his versatility could make him serviceable as a second line winger. Think of Armstrong as this team's version of Darcy Tucker. Burke also signed free agent forward Clarke MacArthur to a one-year, $1.1 million deal to help solidify the top two lines, a relative bargain if he can produce to the level Burke thinks he's capable of.
MacArthur had a career-high 35 points, including 16 goals, last season in splitting time between Buffalo and Atlanta, and sees himself as a premier scorer that hasn't been given the chance to succeed. On the Leafs however, he will be given every chance in the world to prove his worth. Other than these additions, the team will be similar to last year's squad, while young pivots like Tyler Bozak and Nazim Kadri have hopefully matured enough to assume larger roles with the club. Serious questions remain as to whether these young guns have progressed enough to center a group of solid wingers, but only time will tell.
At this point, the closest thing the Leafs have to a proven center is Mikhail Grabovski, who is coming of a disastrous 2009-10 season in which he scored only 10 goals. With a contract posing an annual cap hit of $2.9 million, "Grabo" will need to be much better. Where this Leafs team really has a chance to shine is on the defensive end.
Although the Leafs defense didn't show it last year, on paper they have one of the stronger back ends in the league. With prized acquisition Dion Phaneuf leading a group of proven defenders and Tomas Kaberle back with the club, moving the puck with ease while playing a bruising physical style will define this years' defense corps.
Mike Komisarek, who played only 34 games last year before undergoing season ending shoulder surgery, is healthy and should come closer to resembling the type of player his $4.5 million annual salary suggests.
With no sure bets on the offensive end, the defense will be leaned upon heavily to protect the goaltenders this season.
The improved tandem of J.S. Giguere and Jonas Gustavsson gives the Leafs a solid pair of netminders, something they haven't been able to claim much of the last three campaigns. Giguere, 33, joined the Leafs near the end of last season via trade from the Anaheim Ducks and the former Conn Smythe Trophy winner and Stanley Cup champion was stellar in his 15 starts. In those games, he posted a 2.49 goals-against average with a .916 save percentage to go along with two shutouts, reclaiming some of the form that he showed during his years with the Ducks.
The Leafs are hoping the 6-foot-1, 202-pound Giguere can find that form again, something that would only add to the confidence of this relatively young squad as the season progresses. Giguere will also be expected to mentor the franchise's potential goaltender of the future in Jonas Gustavsson. The 25- year old Swede, who rose to prominence by backstopping his former team Farjestad to a Swedish Elite League title in 2009, had an effective rookie campaign last year with the Leafs. The one they call "The Monster" showed great fortitude during his first NHL season battling a heart condition and two minor heat procedures, while still managing to start 39 games and earn 16 wins.
Gustavsson, who plays a similar style to Giguere's, should progress even further under the tutelage of his older and wiser goaltending partner and renowned goaltending coach Francois Allaire. Even with optimism abound heading into the fall, Leafs fans should still approach this season with tempered expectations.
Improving upon their 30-38-14 record is likely, while challenging for a spot in the postseason may not be. The Eastern Conference is full of offensively superior teams that will have to be leapfrogged in order to gain a chance to compete for the Cup. With that being said, if some of the youngsters up front can break out while helping the team find an offensive groove, the Leafs have the defense and goaltending to take them to the next level.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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Super Bowl 2009 Betting
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositionsUnderdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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