Baseball Betting

In the FCS Huddle: National champ NDSU restocking the talent

NCAA Football Betting Lines

01/31/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The physical talent in North Dakota State's recruiting class is strong enough on its own.

What the Bison gained in the last month might be the difference-maker in putting their recruits, and future classes, over the top.

Or, to put it more correctly, keeping them on top.

That's what winning the FCS national championship does for a program like NDSU's.

"The guys that we're able to probably attract now are guys that have a No. 1 goal of winning a national championship," Bison head coach Craig Bohl said, "as opposed to just playing time."

The Bison, of course, are still basking in their 17-6 win over Sam Houston State in the NCAA Division I Football Championship Game on Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.

While playing so much longer into the season than even most FBS bowl teams has its negatives, the Bison would take it every year, especially since their convincing win over Georgia Southern in the national semifinals and then the championship game win over Sam Houston State were nationally televised, and kept the program fresh in the minds of recruits.

"We certainly have garnered a great deal of national exposure and that has really been for our institution and our region. Coaches, you live in the present, and we've been out on the recruiting trail trying to compose our squad to the next year," said Bohl, who will be in his 10th season at NDSU this fall.

"I think it's a double-edged sword. Certainly the recognition is great. The challenge is when other schools are sitting in a youngster's living room with mom and dad and you haven't been there because you're preparing the team, that can be a negative side. On the positive side, you do attract a guy that wants to win a championship, so your pool may be changed a little bit."

NDSU coaches tried to be well-rounded with their recruiting class, which will be announced Wednesday afternoon on national signing day, but the focus has been offensive linemen and wide receivers. The senior losses included stud veterans Paul Cornick and Austin Richard up front and leading receiver Warren Holloway.

The recruiting class is expected to feature, among others, 6-foot-1, 253-pound center Austin Farnlof out of Anthem, Ariz., and Boulder Creek High, 6-4, 310-pound guard Zack Johnson from Apple Valley, Minn., and Eastview, and 6-6, 260-pound guard Sam Hahn from DeWitt, Neb., and Tri County School as well as wide receivers DeSean Warren from Overland Park, Kan., and Blue Valley West, and Dee Gray from Aurora, Ill., and Waubonsie Valley.

"We felt like it was important for us to replace some offensive linemen and wide receivers. That's probably the biggest areas," Bohl said.

"I found this out personally (in) winning a national title when I was an assistant coach at Nebraska: people on the outside make the common connection that you win a national championship (and in) your recruiting class you're going to have all these guys jump in the boat. That's really not the case. I think that it certainly positions our program with great visibility in the future, but the immediate impact, I don't know if it's going to be felt for maybe a year or two."

NDSU will get a boost if John Crockett, a potential impact running back, becomes academically eligible this season. He was part of the 2010 recruiting class that delivered linebackers Chad Willson (as a junior college transfer) and Travis Beck, who won outstanding player honors in the national title game, left tackle Billy Turner, and defensive backs Colten Heagle and Christian Dudzik.

While the loss of the Bison's senior class is significant, its other returnees include quarterback Brock Jensen, leader rushing Sam Ojuri and first-team All-America cornerback Marcus Williams.

"It is very, very difficult to get in the championship game. It's very difficult to be a playoff team," Bohl said. "That being said, we feel like the foundation is set to where we should be in contention again next year, where there have been other years where I looked and said this is going to be a rebuilding year. I don't think we're in that position. I think we have a lot of really good returning football players, and those seniors who left left a great foundation as far as team chemistry, work habits, resolve and focus. We're excited about our prospects next year."

AROUND THE NATION

With their high number of two- and three-star commits, it can be argued that James Madison and Portland State are putting together the best recruiting classes in the FCS ... Maybe the Ivy League presidents should rethink their stubborn stance of not sending its champion to the FCS playoffs. In a few years, some of their teams might be outstanding. The Ivies have the most three-star prospects according to the ESPN and Rivals rankings and the most top-rated prospects at different positions according to Scout ... It's hard to believe there will be a bigger FBS transfer than former Iowa running back Marcus Coker enrolling at Stony Brook. As a sophomore last season, Coker rushed for 1,384 yards to finish second to Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball of Wisconsin in the Big Ten in rushing. He also scored 15 touchdowns on 281 carries ... Among the top junior college transfers to FCS programs are wide receivers Isiah Ferguson, to Arkansas-Pine Bluff from ASA College, and Kelvin Chatham, to Illinois State from Citrus Community College ... South Dakota State will have to decide on the offensive or defensive line for highly rated tackle Mike Shoff out of Cambridge, Neb.

TOP COMMITMENTS

FCS programs will be embracing the letters of intent that come in on Wednesday.

ESPN, Rivals and Scout provide substantial recruiting information, although it's not as thorough and complete on the FCS level as the FBS level.

Here's some of the analysis:

ESPN.com

According to ESPN.com, the highest-ranked high school seniors to be committing to FCS programs are the following three-star recruits (with school, player, position, height, weight, hometown and high school):

Big Sky

Montana State - Dakota Prukop, QB, 6-2, 185, Austin, Texas, Vandegrift

Portland State - Tyrone Holmes, DT, 6-4, 250, Eagle Point, Ore., Eagle Point

South Dakota - Chris Wiseman, DE, 6-4, 230, Lee's Summit, Mo., Lee's Summit West

Big South

Liberty - D.J. Abnar, ATH, 5-10, 170, Tallahassee, Fla., Lincoln

CAA Football

James Madison - Dylan Stallings, DE, 6-4, 202, Yorktown, Va., Grafton; Ian Fisher, ATH, 6-6, 240, Brunswick, MD, Brunswick

Richmond - Alex Gee, OG, 6-4, 270, Burlington, N.C., Walter M. Williams

Towson - Bryton Barr, OLB, 6-0, 215, Mechanicsburg, Pa., Mechanicsburg

William & Mary - Tyler Claytor, DT, 6-2, 265, Snellville, Ga., Shiloh

Ivy League

Brown - Seth Rosenbauer, QB, 6-4, 235, Lima, Ohio, Shawnee

Columbia - Alec Davison, ILB, 6-1, 225, Sugar Land, Texas, Clements; Austin Stock, C, 6-3, 270, Solon, Ohio, Solon; Nikolas Padilla, DT, 6-1, 275, Dallas, Parish Episcopal

Cornell - Matt Doneth, TE, 6-4, 230, Detroit, Detroit Catholic Central

Harvard - Dayne Davis, OLB, 6-2, 205, Aledo, Texas, Aledo

Penn - Cameron Countryman, WR, 5-11, 170, Beverly Hills, Calif., Beverly Hills

Yale - Cole Champion, S, 6-0, 195, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., St. Thomas Aquinas; Braden Meador, OT, 6-5, 290, Montgomery, Texas, Montgomery

MEAC

Bethune-Cookman - Terry Harden, S, 6-0, 175, Hollywood, Fla., Hollywood Hills; Ray Martin, WR, 5-10, 180, Sanford, Fla., Seminole

South Carolina State - Marquise Jones, CB, 6-0, 185, Columbia, S.C., Eau Claire

Missouri Valley

North Dakota State - Austin Farnlof, C, 6-1, 253, Anthem, Ariz., Boulder Creek

South Dakota State - Mike Shoff, OT, 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge

Youngstown State - Nick Wargo, QB, 6-2, 211, Stow, Ohio, Walsh Jesuit

Southern Conference

Appalachian State - Tysean Holloway, RB, 6-0, 190, Asheville, N.C., Asheville; Dante Blackmon, ATH/DB, 5-11, 183, Covington, Ga., Eastside

Georgia Southern - Tre Griffin, DE, 6-2, 232, Kennesaw, Ga., North Cobb; Matt Dobson, QB, 6-1, 206, Tallahassee, Fla., North Florida Christian

Samford - Ben Tamburello, OG, 6-3, 270, Hoover, Ala., Spain Park

Southland

Central Arkansas - Aum'Arie Wallace, S, 6-1, 185, Little Rock, Ark., Pulaski Academy

SWAC

Grambling State - Tray Rabon, WR, 6-1, 195, Dallas, Skyline

Rivals.com

According to Rivals.com, the highest-ranked high school seniors to be committing to FCS programs are the following three-star recruits (with school, player, position, height, weight, hometown and high school):

Big Sky

Northern Arizona - Blair Wishom, DB, 6-0, 195, San Francisco, City College of San Francisco

Portland State - Jamarr Graves, WR, 6-4, 185, Portland, Grant; Daniel Halverson, LB, 6-2, 220, Portland, Grant; Nicholas Rothstein, ATH, 5-11, 207, Portland, Jesuit

CAA Football

Delaware - Jalen Randolph, RB, 6-1, 220, Folsom, Pa., Ridley

James Madison - Stacey Bebell, ATH, 5-10, 180, Mastic Beach, N.Y., William Floyd; Rhakeem Stallings, LB, 6-0, 220, Chesapeake, Va., Oscar Smith

Villanova - Mike Burke, WR, 6-3, 205, Columbia, Pa., Columbia Jr./Sr.; Austin Calitro, LB, 6-2, 220, Danbury, Conn., Danbury; Corey Majors, LB, 6-1, 230, Worcester, Mass., Worcester Academy

Ivy League

Columbia - Trevor McDonagh, QB, 6-2, 200, St. Louis, University

Princeton - Kedric Bostic, QB, 6-3, 180, Jupiter, Fla., Jupiter Christian

Yale - Eric Williams, QB, 6-3, 191, Cleveland, St. Ignatius

Missouri Valley

South Dakota State - Mike Shoff, OT, 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge

Southern Conference

Appalachian State - Dante Blackmon, ATH/DB, 5-11, 183, Covington, Ga., Eastside

Georgia Southern - Matt Dobson, QB, 6-1, 206, Tallahassee, Fla., North Florida Christian

Southland

Central Arkansas - Ricky Wyatt, LB, 5-10, 225, Monroe, La., Neville

Samford - Brandon Teeling, DT, 6-3, 260, Seffner, Fla., Armwood

SWAC

Grambling State - Tray Rabon, WR, 6-1, 195, Dallas, Skyline

Scout.com

Scout.com's top-rated FCS commit at each position (with position, player, height, weight, hometown, high school and national ranking at the position):

QB - Dalyn Williams (committed to Dartmouth), 6-1, 190, Lake Dallas, Texas, Lake Dallas, 59

RB - Tysean Holloway (committed to Appalachian State), 6-0, 190, Asheville, N.C., Asheville, 105

FB - Matt Barnett (committed to Wagner), 6-1, 220, Haddonfield, N.J., Paul VI, 17

WR - Malachi Jones (committed to Appalachian State), 6-1, 182, Lawrenceville, Ga., Central Gwinnett, 207

TE - Canon Smith (committed to Liberty), 6-4, 245, Birmingham, Ala., Briarwood Christian, NR

OT - Christian Wilson (committed to Youngstown State), 6-6, 308, McKeesport, PA, McKeesport Area, 134

OG - Braden Meador (committed to Yale), 6-5, 290, Montgomery, Texas, Montgomery, 74

C - Austin Stock (committed to Columbia), 6-3, 270, Solon, Ohio, Solon, 24

DT - Mike Shoff (committed to South Dakota State), 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge, 51

DE - Tim Hatfield (committed to Brown), 6-6, 240, Albuquerque, N.M., Volcano Vista, 166

OLB - Marcus Forward (committed to Northern Colorado), 6-2, 195, Flint, Mich., Northern, 106

MLB - Daniel Halverson (committed to Portland State), 6-2, 220, Portland, Ore., Grant, 53

S - Luke Hagy (committed to Cornell), 5-11, 185, Pittsburgh, Mt. Lebanon, 169

CB - Thomas Singleton (committed to Northern Colorado), 5-10, 170, Aurora, Colo., Cherokee Trail, 172

K - Ryan Hawkins (committed to Northern Arizona), 5-11, 175, Peoria, Ariz., Sunrise Mountain, NR

P and LS - None

OH, YES

The season kicks off in seven months.


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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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