In the FCS Huddle: National champ NDSU restocking the talent
NCAA Football Betting Lines
01/31/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The physical talent in North Dakota State's recruiting class is strong enough on its own.
What the Bison gained in the last month might be the difference-maker in putting their recruits, and future classes, over the top.
Or, to put it more correctly, keeping them on top.
That's what winning the FCS national championship does for a program like NDSU's.
"The guys that we're able to probably attract now are guys that have a No. 1 goal of winning a national championship," Bison head coach Craig Bohl said, "as opposed to just playing time."
The Bison, of course, are still basking in their 17-6 win over Sam Houston State in the NCAA Division I Football Championship Game on Jan. 7 in Frisco, Texas.
While playing so much longer into the season than even most FBS bowl teams has its negatives, the Bison would take it every year, especially since their convincing win over Georgia Southern in the national semifinals and then the championship game win over Sam Houston State were nationally televised, and kept the program fresh in the minds of recruits.
"We certainly have garnered a great deal of national exposure and that has really been for our institution and our region. Coaches, you live in the present, and we've been out on the recruiting trail trying to compose our squad to the next year," said Bohl, who will be in his 10th season at NDSU this fall.
"I think it's a double-edged sword. Certainly the recognition is great. The challenge is when other schools are sitting in a youngster's living room with mom and dad and you haven't been there because you're preparing the team, that can be a negative side. On the positive side, you do attract a guy that wants to win a championship, so your pool may be changed a little bit."
NDSU coaches tried to be well-rounded with their recruiting class, which will be announced Wednesday afternoon on national signing day, but the focus has been offensive linemen and wide receivers. The senior losses included stud veterans Paul Cornick and Austin Richard up front and leading receiver Warren Holloway.
The recruiting class is expected to feature, among others, 6-foot-1, 253-pound center Austin Farnlof out of Anthem, Ariz., and Boulder Creek High, 6-4, 310-pound guard Zack Johnson from Apple Valley, Minn., and Eastview, and 6-6, 260-pound guard Sam Hahn from DeWitt, Neb., and Tri County School as well as wide receivers DeSean Warren from Overland Park, Kan., and Blue Valley West, and Dee Gray from Aurora, Ill., and Waubonsie Valley.
"We felt like it was important for us to replace some offensive linemen and wide receivers. That's probably the biggest areas," Bohl said.
"I found this out personally (in) winning a national title when I was an assistant coach at Nebraska: people on the outside make the common connection that you win a national championship (and in) your recruiting class you're going to have all these guys jump in the boat. That's really not the case. I think that it certainly positions our program with great visibility in the future, but the immediate impact, I don't know if it's going to be felt for maybe a year or two."
NDSU will get a boost if John Crockett, a potential impact running back, becomes academically eligible this season. He was part of the 2010 recruiting class that delivered linebackers Chad Willson (as a junior college transfer) and Travis Beck, who won outstanding player honors in the national title game, left tackle Billy Turner, and defensive backs Colten Heagle and Christian Dudzik.
While the loss of the Bison's senior class is significant, its other returnees include quarterback Brock Jensen, leader rushing Sam Ojuri and first-team All-America cornerback Marcus Williams.
"It is very, very difficult to get in the championship game. It's very difficult to be a playoff team," Bohl said. "That being said, we feel like the foundation is set to where we should be in contention again next year, where there have been other years where I looked and said this is going to be a rebuilding year. I don't think we're in that position. I think we have a lot of really good returning football players, and those seniors who left left a great foundation as far as team chemistry, work habits, resolve and focus. We're excited about our prospects next year."
AROUND THE NATION
With their high number of two- and three-star commits, it can be argued that James Madison and Portland State are putting together the best recruiting classes in the FCS ... Maybe the Ivy League presidents should rethink their stubborn stance of not sending its champion to the FCS playoffs. In a few years, some of their teams might be outstanding. The Ivies have the most three-star prospects according to the ESPN and Rivals rankings and the most top-rated prospects at different positions according to Scout ... It's hard to believe there will be a bigger FBS transfer than former Iowa running back Marcus Coker enrolling at Stony Brook. As a sophomore last season, Coker rushed for 1,384 yards to finish second to Heisman Trophy finalist Montee Ball of Wisconsin in the Big Ten in rushing. He also scored 15 touchdowns on 281 carries ... Among the top junior college transfers to FCS programs are wide receivers Isiah Ferguson, to Arkansas-Pine Bluff from ASA College, and Kelvin Chatham, to Illinois State from Citrus Community College ... South Dakota State will have to decide on the offensive or defensive line for highly rated tackle Mike Shoff out of Cambridge, Neb.
TOP COMMITMENTS
FCS programs will be embracing the letters of intent that come in on Wednesday.
ESPN, Rivals and Scout provide substantial recruiting information, although it's not as thorough and complete on the FCS level as the FBS level.
Here's some of the analysis:
ESPN.com
According to ESPN.com, the highest-ranked high school seniors to be committing to FCS programs are the following three-star recruits (with school, player, position, height, weight, hometown and high school):
Big Sky
Montana State - Dakota Prukop, QB, 6-2, 185, Austin, Texas, Vandegrift
Portland State - Tyrone Holmes, DT, 6-4, 250, Eagle Point, Ore., Eagle Point
South Dakota - Chris Wiseman, DE, 6-4, 230, Lee's Summit, Mo., Lee's Summit West
Big South
Liberty - D.J. Abnar, ATH, 5-10, 170, Tallahassee, Fla., Lincoln
CAA Football
James Madison - Dylan Stallings, DE, 6-4, 202, Yorktown, Va., Grafton; Ian Fisher, ATH, 6-6, 240, Brunswick, MD, Brunswick
Richmond - Alex Gee, OG, 6-4, 270, Burlington, N.C., Walter M. Williams
Towson - Bryton Barr, OLB, 6-0, 215, Mechanicsburg, Pa., Mechanicsburg
William & Mary - Tyler Claytor, DT, 6-2, 265, Snellville, Ga., Shiloh
Ivy League
Brown - Seth Rosenbauer, QB, 6-4, 235, Lima, Ohio, Shawnee
Columbia - Alec Davison, ILB, 6-1, 225, Sugar Land, Texas, Clements; Austin Stock, C, 6-3, 270, Solon, Ohio, Solon; Nikolas Padilla, DT, 6-1, 275, Dallas, Parish Episcopal
Cornell - Matt Doneth, TE, 6-4, 230, Detroit, Detroit Catholic Central
Harvard - Dayne Davis, OLB, 6-2, 205, Aledo, Texas, Aledo
Penn - Cameron Countryman, WR, 5-11, 170, Beverly Hills, Calif., Beverly Hills
Yale - Cole Champion, S, 6-0, 195, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., St. Thomas Aquinas; Braden Meador, OT, 6-5, 290, Montgomery, Texas, Montgomery
MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - Terry Harden, S, 6-0, 175, Hollywood, Fla., Hollywood Hills; Ray Martin, WR, 5-10, 180, Sanford, Fla., Seminole
South Carolina State - Marquise Jones, CB, 6-0, 185, Columbia, S.C., Eau Claire
Missouri Valley
North Dakota State - Austin Farnlof, C, 6-1, 253, Anthem, Ariz., Boulder Creek
South Dakota State - Mike Shoff, OT, 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge
Youngstown State - Nick Wargo, QB, 6-2, 211, Stow, Ohio, Walsh Jesuit
Southern Conference
Appalachian State - Tysean Holloway, RB, 6-0, 190, Asheville, N.C., Asheville; Dante Blackmon, ATH/DB, 5-11, 183, Covington, Ga., Eastside
Georgia Southern - Tre Griffin, DE, 6-2, 232, Kennesaw, Ga., North Cobb; Matt Dobson, QB, 6-1, 206, Tallahassee, Fla., North Florida Christian
Samford - Ben Tamburello, OG, 6-3, 270, Hoover, Ala., Spain Park
Southland
Central Arkansas - Aum'Arie Wallace, S, 6-1, 185, Little Rock, Ark., Pulaski Academy
SWAC
Grambling State - Tray Rabon, WR, 6-1, 195, Dallas, Skyline
Rivals.com
According to Rivals.com, the highest-ranked high school seniors to be committing to FCS programs are the following three-star recruits (with school, player, position, height, weight, hometown and high school):
Big Sky
Northern Arizona - Blair Wishom, DB, 6-0, 195, San Francisco, City College of San Francisco
Portland State - Jamarr Graves, WR, 6-4, 185, Portland, Grant; Daniel Halverson, LB, 6-2, 220, Portland, Grant; Nicholas Rothstein, ATH, 5-11, 207, Portland, Jesuit
CAA Football
Delaware - Jalen Randolph, RB, 6-1, 220, Folsom, Pa., Ridley
James Madison - Stacey Bebell, ATH, 5-10, 180, Mastic Beach, N.Y., William Floyd; Rhakeem Stallings, LB, 6-0, 220, Chesapeake, Va., Oscar Smith
Villanova - Mike Burke, WR, 6-3, 205, Columbia, Pa., Columbia Jr./Sr.; Austin Calitro, LB, 6-2, 220, Danbury, Conn., Danbury; Corey Majors, LB, 6-1, 230, Worcester, Mass., Worcester Academy
Ivy League
Columbia - Trevor McDonagh, QB, 6-2, 200, St. Louis, University
Princeton - Kedric Bostic, QB, 6-3, 180, Jupiter, Fla., Jupiter Christian
Yale - Eric Williams, QB, 6-3, 191, Cleveland, St. Ignatius
Missouri Valley
South Dakota State - Mike Shoff, OT, 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge
Southern Conference
Appalachian State - Dante Blackmon, ATH/DB, 5-11, 183, Covington, Ga., Eastside
Georgia Southern - Matt Dobson, QB, 6-1, 206, Tallahassee, Fla., North Florida Christian
Southland
Central Arkansas - Ricky Wyatt, LB, 5-10, 225, Monroe, La., Neville
Samford - Brandon Teeling, DT, 6-3, 260, Seffner, Fla., Armwood
SWAC
Grambling State - Tray Rabon, WR, 6-1, 195, Dallas, Skyline
Scout.com
Scout.com's top-rated FCS commit at each position (with position, player, height, weight, hometown, high school and national ranking at the position):
QB - Dalyn Williams (committed to Dartmouth), 6-1, 190, Lake Dallas, Texas, Lake Dallas, 59
RB - Tysean Holloway (committed to Appalachian State), 6-0, 190, Asheville, N.C., Asheville, 105
FB - Matt Barnett (committed to Wagner), 6-1, 220, Haddonfield, N.J., Paul VI, 17
WR - Malachi Jones (committed to Appalachian State), 6-1, 182, Lawrenceville, Ga., Central Gwinnett, 207
TE - Canon Smith (committed to Liberty), 6-4, 245, Birmingham, Ala., Briarwood Christian, NR
OT - Christian Wilson (committed to Youngstown State), 6-6, 308, McKeesport, PA, McKeesport Area, 134
OG - Braden Meador (committed to Yale), 6-5, 290, Montgomery, Texas, Montgomery, 74
C - Austin Stock (committed to Columbia), 6-3, 270, Solon, Ohio, Solon, 24
DT - Mike Shoff (committed to South Dakota State), 6-6, 280, Cambridge, Neb., Cambridge, 51
DE - Tim Hatfield (committed to Brown), 6-6, 240, Albuquerque, N.M., Volcano Vista, 166
OLB - Marcus Forward (committed to Northern Colorado), 6-2, 195, Flint, Mich., Northern, 106
MLB - Daniel Halverson (committed to Portland State), 6-2, 220, Portland, Ore., Grant, 53
S - Luke Hagy (committed to Cornell), 5-11, 185, Pittsburgh, Mt. Lebanon, 169
CB - Thomas Singleton (committed to Northern Colorado), 5-10, 170, Aurora, Colo., Cherokee Trail, 172
K - Ryan Hawkins (committed to Northern Arizona), 5-11, 175, Peoria, Ariz., Sunrise Mountain, NR
P and LS - None
OH, YES
The season kicks off in seven months.
Piscataway, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rutgers has named Kyle Flood as its new head football coach to replace Greg Schiano. Flood was given the job on an interim basis last week when Schiano decided to take the vacancy with the NFL's Tampa Bay B
<< New helmets could help prevent concussions
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Amid the fanfare and excitement of All-
Star weekend a potentially groundbreaking development in the world of
professional hockey earned few headlines.
Concussions are an epidemic in today's N
<< Bogomolov Jr., Youzhny win Zagreb openers
Zagreb, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of this week's top-three seeds,
Russians Alex Bogomolov Jr. and Mikhail Youzhny, were among Tuesday's opening-
round winners at the Zagreb Indoors tennis event.
The second-seeded Bogomolov drilled
<< Kohlschreiber rolls in Montpellier opener
Montpellier, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seventh seed Philipp Kohlschreiber
was an easy first-round winner Tuesday at the Open Sud de France tennis
tournament.
The German Kohlschreiber handled scrappy Belgian Olivier Rochus 6-1, 6-4 on
the
<< Leverkusen snaps up Corluka on loan
Leverkusen, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayer Leverkusen landed Vedran Corluka
from Tottenham on loan for the remainder of the season with an option to sign
the defender to a longer contract, it was announced Tuesday.
Corluka has only manag
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan moved to offset the departure of midfielder Sulley Muntari with three new signings Tuesday. Colombian striker Fredy Guarin, Italian midfielder Angelo Palombo, and Brazilian defender Juan
Augsburg signs South Korean Koo from Wolfsburg >>
Augsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Augsburg signed South Korean midfielder
Koo Ja-Cheol on loan for the rest of the season Tuesday from Wolfsburg.
Koo, 22, joined Wolfsburg from Japanese side Jeju United last January and made
10 Bundesli
Aden sidelined for remainder of season >>
Pullman, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Faisal Aden, Washington State University's
second-leading scorer, will miss the remainder of the college basketball
season with a left ACL tear.
Aden, a senior guard, suffered the injury on January 2
Four years later, Giants' foes still feeling the rush >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It was perhaps the perfect game plan at the absolute perfect
time.
While the New York Giants' ability to pull off what's considered one of
greatest upsets in sports history, a 17-14 ousting of New England in Super Bowl
XL
PSG signs Motta from Inter Milan >>
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PSG continued its spending spree before the
close of the January transfer window as it landed Thiago Motta from Inter
Milan on Tuesday.
Financial details of the move were not disclosed, but the tra
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.