In the FCS Huddle: Keeler isn't the FCS' only FBS candidate
NCAA Football Betting Lines
01/26/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The ink seemingly wasn't dry on a contract that would send Greg Schiano from Rutgers to the head coaching job with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and already there was potential fallout:
Delaware coach K.C. Keeler's name came up as a potential successor to Schiano at Rutgers.
Not surprisingly, either.
Keeler's hiring at Rutgers would be one of those rise-through-the-ranks-and- take-the-next-step stories.
It was just over a year ago that Keeler was considered to be a candidate at another Big East program, Connecticut.
Keeler, 52, has the track record to be in the conversation, having taken Division III Rowan and Delaware of the FCS to a combined eight national championship games in 19 seasons as a head coach.
He has the East Coast connections, and New Jersey ties, which would be attractive to Rutgers' decision-makers. He also thinks outside the box and has a terrific understanding of what goes into building and developing a program.
The glaring negative, of course, is Keeler has never coached on the FBS level, even as an assistant.
While Keeler seemingly has the ability to make the jump successfully, a leap to Rutgers, even with the Big East having slipped in the last decade, would have him skipping the lower tier of the FBS to a job which would pay well over $1 million annually, although surely less than Schiano's salary there.
Keeler is one of a small handful of FCS head coaches who have never been a FBS head coach to appear ready to lead a program on that level - the kind the FBS school would pursue as much as the coach will go after it.
FCS head coaches like Appalachian State's Jerry Moore or Villanova's Andy Talley would land in the FBS anyway if their schools move there.
Other highly regarded FCS head coaches don't factor here because they have past experience as FBS head coaches, such as Georgia State's Bill Curry, Harvard's Tim Murphy and Jacksonville State's Jack Crowe.
Still others who haven't been FBS head coaches seem more like perfect fits for their current schools, or whose age might be a concern to schools on the higher level, are Montana State's Rob Ash, 60; James Madison's Mickey Matthews, 58; and New Hampshire's Sean McDonnell, 55.
While Keeler seems ready to make that jump to the FBS level, here are five other coaches who have the resume to become a FBS head coach for the first time:
Beau Baldwin - The 39-year-old might have to become an offensive coordinator first on the FBS level, but he's a young coach on the rise, having already won a FCS championship at Eastern Washington. He's flip-flopped enough at EWU and Division II Central Washington that he fits best for a FBS program in the Pacific Northwest.
Craig Bohl - One has to believe this incredibly serious, driven coach, at 53, would be interested in one more big challenge now that he's taken North Dakota State to the FCS level and then the national title. He was defensive coordinator at Nebraska and has plenty of other FBS experience as an assistant.
Willie Fritz - The Sam Houston State mentor was said to be a candidate for Tulane when that job was vacant this offseason. At 51, he's been coaching for nearly 30 seasons, but may not have enough Division I experience without becoming a defensive coordinator first. Still it's hard to ignore the Bearkats' 14-1 run in his second season.
Jeff Monken - It would take the right school at the right time - perhaps a program that is overmatched and willing to run an option to lessen its gap - but the 44-year-old has highly sought-after values and the recommendation of Paul Johnson, whom he assisted at Georgia Southern, Navy and Georgia Tech.
Bobby Wilder - Don't be fooled by the 10-year contract that Old Dominion gave its 47-year-old coach in December. The long-time Maine assistant has shown an uncanny ability to build a program from scratch, seemingly overnight. ODU is 27-8 through three seasons and already a success in competitive CAA Football.
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Athletics have agreed to terms on a one- year contract with outfielder Jonny Gomes. Gomes, 31, split last season between Cincinnati and Washington, and hit .209 with 14 homers and 43 RBI in 120 games
<< Guadalajara names Ambriz new manager
Guadalajara, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Guadalajara named Ignacio Ambriz its
new manager Thursday, as the former Mexican international takes charge of his
third different club in his native country.
Ambriz, 46, made 64 appearances for Mex
<< Gronkowski to miss practice time
Foxboro, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski
is expected to miss practice time this week in preparation for next Sunday's
Super Bowl because of the ankle injury he sustained during last Sunday's AFC
Champio
<< Nationals add Lidge to bullpen
Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nationals have agreed to terms with
reliever Brad Lidge on a one-year contract.
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Lille, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lille acquired defender Mauro Cetto on loan
for the rest of the season Thursday from Italian club Palermo.
The 29-year-old Argentine started his career with Rosario Central, but later
played in France wit
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers must have been serious about finding a new coach from the college ranks. After a strong flirtation with Oregon's Chip Kelly last weekend, the Bucs on Thursday have reportedly settled
Glenn restructures deal with Stamps >>
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Calgary Stampeders and newly-acquired
quarterback Kevin Glenn have worked out a restructured contract.
Glenn was dealt to the Stampeders on January 3 in a trade with Hamilton that
sent Henry Burris
Hawks waive Sloan >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Hawks have waived rookie guard
Donald Sloan.
The Texas A&M product appeared in five games for the Hawks and averaged 1.2
points with 1.0 rebound in 4.0 minutes per game.
Sloan signed
Red Sox sign former NLCS MVP Ross to one-year deal >>
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox signed outfielder Cody Ross
to a one-year contract on Thursday.
Ross batted .240 with 14 home runs and 52 RBI over 121 games with San
Francisco last season.
An in-season acquis
Kilmarnock signs striker Van Tornhout >>
Kilmarnock, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kilmarnock signed Belgian striker
Dieter van Tornhout from Cyprus side Nea Salamis on Thursday on a deal through
the summer of 2013.
Van Tornhout, 26, becomes the fourth winter signing for Killie,
How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?
The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa
Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.
Should be in:
Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?
Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.
Work left to do:
Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.
Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.
Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.
Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.
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